using m. saadat’s numbers again, just look at the inbreeding coefficients and iqs for these muslim nations … and the u.s. for comparison:

sheesh. keeping in mind the cousin marriage conundrum, can anyone in their right mind really anticipate that democracy and a flowering modern economy (fwtw) will happen anytime soon in any of those countries??

all of the nations in this chart have inbreeding coefficients like those found between second to third cousins. here’s my cheat sheet on inbreeding coefficients [source]:

yeah. good luck with that whole democracy building thing.

update 03/05: bruce comments – “As a comparison, I have heard traditionally Icelanders are ‘in-bred’ in the sense that they are all related and know their degree of relatedness – do you happen to know the coefficient for Iceland? (the average IQ is almost certainly around 100 or just below).”

ask and ye shall receive! (~_^) (correction: almost. see my comment below.)

according to helgason, et. al. — the guys who looked at inbreeding in the icelandic population and found that marrying your third cousin results in the most offspring — well, here’s what they had to say:

“Our data indicated that there has been a decrease by a factor of 10 in mean kinship between Icelandic couples during the past two centuries, from 0.005 for couples with females born 1800 to 1824 to 0.0005 for those born 1950 to 1965 (Table 1). This is equivalent to a change from couples being related on average between the level of third and fourth cousins to couples being related on average at the level of fifth cousins.”

don’t have any data for more recent marriages, but i doubt if the icelanders are marrying their cousins more now than in the 1950s/60s. so, the most recent inbreeding kinship coefficient we’ve got for icelanders is equivalent to those found between fifth cousins while, like i said, all the muslim countries above have inbreeding coefficients like those found between second to third cousins. the icelanders didn’t even have that in the 1800s.

keep in mind, also, that much of the arab|muslim world has been inbreeding like this — very specifically marrying their first-cousins — since before muhammad came on the scene. so, there’s inbreeding (like the icelanders) — and then there’s inbreeding.

btw, the icelandic inbreeding coefficients from the 50s/60s are similar to those found parts of italy and spain up through the 80s.

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