egyptian presidential election results

*update below.*

here are the results as they stand today for the egyptian presidential election, but i do believe there are some disputes in the air so these may not be the final results (click on map for LARGER view).

mursi = the muslim brotherhood guy
shafiq = former member of mubarak’s government – secularist military guy
sabbahi – secularist, socialist, nasserist guy.
– i dunno who the other two candidates are.

so the muslim brotherhood candidate did best in the upper egypt governorates (blue); the military candidate (former member of mubarak’s government) did best in lower egypt – in the delta governorates – and luxor (red); and the socialist guy did best in urban areas (cairo, alexandria, port said) and the red sea governorate (purple).

check out the mating patterns for egypt (see previous post for the numbers on the inbreeding levels.):

– upper egypt (medium gray) = muslim brotherhood = most inbreeding. mursi carried all of the upper egypt governorates.

– lower egypt (light gray) = secular military mubarak guy = middle amount of inbreeding. shafiq carried five of the nine lower egypt governorates. two of the remaining ones went for the muslim brotherhood guy, one (kafr al sheikh) went for the nasserist guy, and one for one of the other candidates.

– urban areas (lightest gray) = secular socialist guy = least amount of inbreeding. sabbahi carried three of the four urban governorates (cairo, alexandria and port said).

i’m not saying there’s a direct connection between the mating patterns and the election results, but there’s clearly some sort of relationship.

meanwhile: Activist finds Sabbahi ballots in sugar cane bushes

previously: mating patterns in egypt and voting patterns and clans in egypt
_____

update: see also Egyptian tribal leaders no longer command the votes of their clans

interesting! i wonder: 1) if this is true; 2) if it is, how prevelent it is; 3) if it will stick.

(note: comments do not require an email. the electorate.)

what egyptians want ii

according to a new survey from pew:

“Egyptians also want Islam to play a major role in society, and most believe the Quran should shape the country’s laws, although a growing minority expresses reservations about the increasing influence of Islam in politics….

“When asked which country is the better model for the role of religion in government, Turkey or Saudi Arabia, 61% say the latter….”

“However, most also endorse specific democratic rights and institutions that do not exist in Saudi Arabia, such as free speech, a free press, and equal rights for women….

“There is no consensus among Egyptians as to whether American financial assistance to their country is primarily economic or military. A plurality (34%) believes the aid is mostly to help Egypt develop economically, while 23% say the aid is mostly military. Nearly three-in-ten (28%) believe it is divided equally between economic and military assistance, and 14% offer no opinion.

Both types of American aid are viewed negatively by Egyptians. About six-in-ten (61%) say U.S. military aid has a harmful influence on Egypt, while just 11% believe its impact is positive, and 25% say it has no impact. Similarly, 61% consider U.S. economic aid harmful, while the remainder of the public is split between positive views (21%) and the belief that the aid has no impact (17%)….

well, if they don’t want it….

i should ‘fess up right now that i have an inexplicable** soft spot for egypt and egyptians. i really do wish them well and hope it all works out for them as best as it can work out.

previously: what egyptians want and aígyptos

(note: comments do not require an email. **it’s got something to do with all this stuff.)

sexual harassment and rape in egypt…

…has been a major problem long before lara logan got there.

back in 2006, an incident very like logan’s happened in cairo only with egyptian women. it was during the eid ul-fitr festival which marks the end of ramadan. here’s one description of what happened:

“The story is as follows for the those of you who didn’t hear about it: It was the first day of Eid, and a new film was opening downtown. Mobs of males gatherd trying to get in, but when the show was sold out, they decided they will destroy the box office. After accomplishing that, they went on what can only be described as a sexual frenxy: They ran around grabbing any and every girl in sight, whether a niqabi, a Hijabi or uncoverd. Whether egyptian or foreigner. Even pregnant ones. They grabbed them, molested them, tried to rip their cloths off and rape them, all in front of the police, who didn’t do shit. The good people of downtown tried their best to protect the girls. Shop owners would let the girls in and lock the doors, while the mobs tried to break in. Taxi drivers put the girls in the cars while the mobs were trying to break the glass and grab the girls out. It was a disgusting pandamonium of sexual assaults that lasted for 5 houres from 7:30 PM to 12:30 am, and it truns my stomach just to think about it.”

u prolly never heard about these incidents ’cause, for one thing, they were never widely reported in the egyptian news (let alone our lamestream media). at least not at first. not until some egyptian bloggers starting reporting on it. this was one of the first instances when egyptian bloggers really flexed their muscles. (go bloggers!)

in fact, sexual harassment and rape of women in egypt has been increasing over the last few years. (or maybe reporting has increased?)

a lot of explanations have been put forward for why.

exposure to things from western culture, like scantily clad women, affecting egyptian men’s brains in a negative way. actually, there’s prolly an element of truth to that. it doesn’t follow what works ok-ish in our society (western women don’t get harassed 24/7 even though they go around relatively scantily clad) will work ok everywhere else on the planet. egyptians are different. they have different biologies, different histories, a different cultural background. suddenly being able to download free pr0n whenever they like might just unhinge a lot of egyptian men.

another reason suggested for the upswing in bad behavior by egyptian men is that they’re frustrated ’cause it’s become so expensive to marry and settle down these days. egyptian men are, the thinking goes, sexually and reproductively frustrated. i think there’s something to that, too. having to delay marriage until ur in ur 30s and having little access to women otherwise. sure they’re frustrated!

the particular incidents of the eid festival 2006 and lara logan happened during emotionally heated, pumped-up-on-testosterone moments. the eid festival celebrates the end of a month long time of abstinence (including sex) and, in the 2006 case, the young men were all worked up after their looting of the movie theater. in logan’s case, the men there were obviously worked up after a couple of weeks of anti-mubarak protests. like i said over @ ferdinand’s:

“my first thought, too, when i read about this was wtf was she doing there?!?! no, that is NO place for a woman to be. no place at all. especially not an attractive woman! h*ll, i wouldn’t even want to be in a crowd celebrating a lakers nba championship win let alone in a crowd of middle eastern men pumped up on testosterone! good lord.”

i’d like to throw out there one other reason why i think sexual harassment has been increasing in egypt lately. it’s prolly ’cause increasing numbers of women have been moving to urban areas (i.e. away from their homeplaces) for college or work or whatever. they’ve been moving to places where they are not very related to the men, unlike back at home.

recall about the effects of inbreeding on social behaviors:

“the MORE you are related to your relatives (for instance, ’cause ur clan members have been inbreeding for generations), you’d think the MORE you’d favor them.”

and, conversely, in an inbred society, the more you are NOT related to your neighbors, the more you are likely to treat them harshly.

egyptians have become more mobile and are increasingly moving to urban areas away from their extended families. but the level of inbreeding has not yet caught up with (or, rather, ratcheted down to) this new living arrangement. the population is still one of very inbred clans, but the members of the clans have become more disperse. i would think this would create all sorts of problems for a while. i would expect that all sorts of crime have gone up, not just sexual harassment.

this dispersal of clan members into urban settings probably (at least partially) explains the increased sexual harassment AND the increasing use of the hijab in the country:

as stanley kurtz wrote about the sitch in afghanistan:

“The Taliban’s code of womanly behavior was intentionally directed toward the cities. The aim was to ‘purify’ those areas of Afghanistan that had been ‘corrupted’ by modernization. But the Taliban never bothered to enforce its rules in traditional areas. Actually, in most Afghan villages, women rarely wear the burka. That’s because villages in Afghanistan are organized into kin-oriented areas, and the veil needs wearing only when a woman is among men from outside of her kin group. A rural woman puts on a burka for travel, especially to cities. Yet just by exiting her home, a woman in a modern city inevitably mixes with men who are not her kin. That’s why the Taliban prohibited the modernized women of Kabul from so much as stepping onto the street without a male relative. So the real problem with the veil in Afghanistan was the Taliban’s attempt to impose the traditional system of veiling on a modernizing city. Yet, remarkable as it may seem, many modernizing urban women throughout the Middle East have freely accepted at least a portion of the Taliban’s reasoning. These educated women have actually taken up the veil — and along with it, Muslim fundamentalism.”

mating patterns matter. biology matters. ’nuff said!

update 02/23: see also logan wasn’t alone

(note: comments do not require an email.)

what egyptians want

well, obviously, a helluva lot of them wanted mubarak out. they’ve got that, so now what?

taking a look @the world values survey, most of them prolly do NOT want another strong leader. they’ve had enough of that. in the 2008 survey, 84% thought having a strong leader was bad or very bad (click on charts for LARGER views):

they’d much rather have the military in charge (handy that since that’s what they’ve got for now) — 56.6% of them thought in ’08 that military rule was fairly or very good:

most of them — 89.3% — prefer democracy:

and that very much includes free elections (good luck with that, egyptians!):

but … just ’cause someone uses fb and twitter doesn’t mean that they think and feel just like you (we) do. nuh-uh!

no. most egyptians think that the cultural invasion of their country by the west is a serious or very serious problem — and that included 86.1% of people between the ages of 15-29 in 2000:

according to a more recent pew survey, 85% of muslims in egypt (ca. 90% of egyptians are muslim) think islam’s influence on politics is just swell:

and back in 2000, 80.2% of egyptians agreed or agreed strongly that shari’a law for egypt would be a good idea — and that included 50.6% of the christians!:

those sentiments don’t seem to have changed much over the last decade — from pew again:

and there’s more — 97.6% of the christians responding in 2000 said that they thought women ought to wear a veil! that beat out the muslims @94.9%:

the thing is, more egyptians prolly think and feel closer to how this egyptian lady thinks and feels…

…than they do to these egyptians folks…

see also: The Egyptian Thriller @gov.

previously: aígyptos

bonus: a couple of coptic women from the past in hijab –

(note: comments do not require an email.)